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The Knight Frank - NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2024 highlights a measured optimism in India's real estate sector, despite a slight decline in sentiment scores. The current and future sentiment indices fell to 59 from 64 and 67 in the previous quarter, respectively, yet remain in the optimistic zone. The residential market outlook remains positive, with expectations of rising prices and sales, though confidence in new launches has weakened. The office market continues to exhibit strength in leasing, supply, and rent. However, economic uncertainties, including revised GDP projections and rupee depreciation, have led to a more cautious investment outlook.
The latest Knight Frank - NAREDCO Real Estate Sentiment Index for Q4 2024 indicates a measured optimism in India's real estate sector, despite global economic fluctuations influencing stakeholder sentiment. Both current and future sentiment scores remain above the optimistic threshold of 50, though they have experienced a downward correction from the previous quarter. The current sentiment index score declined to 59 in Q4 2024, down from 64 in Q3 2024. Similarly, the future sentiment score corrected to 59 in Q4 2024, compared to 67 in the previous quarter. Despite these corrections, sentiments remain firmly in the optimistic zone, underscoring continued confidence in the sector's long-term prospects.
The residential market outlook in Q4 2024 sustains optimism, with 59% of stakeholders expecting a rise in residential prices, while 38% anticipate an increase in sales. Additionally, 41% foresee a rise in residential launches, indicating sustained demand. However, confidence in residential launches has moderated, with 32% of respondents now expecting a decline in new launches in the first and second quarters of 2025, a significant shift from just 4% in Q4 2023.
The office market outlook exhibits buoyancy across key parameters-leasing, supply, and rent-as stakeholders remain confident about the performance of this asset class in the next six months. Respondents opined that India's office market demand will be bolstered in the first half of 2025. Non-developer stakeholders, including banks, financial institutions, and private equity funds, have revised their outlook slightly, with their sentiment score declining to 60 in Q4 2024. This cautious optimism reflects a balanced anticipation of challenges and opportunities in the upcoming months.
Based on the survey findings, 54% of respondents have a positive outlook on the economic scenario, marking a significant decline from 90% in Q4 2023. The tempered sentiment can be attributed to recent downward revisions in GDP projections, rupee depreciation, and other macroeconomic factors. Consequently, 46% of respondents exhibit moderated optimism regarding India's economic resilience and growth potential.
Furthermore, 39% anticipate an increase in funding availability, reflecting a more cautious confidence compared to 57% in Q4 2023. Notably, the proportion of respondents expecting a decrease in funding has risen to 12% in Q4 2024, up from 6% in Q4 2023. This underscores that while investors continue to recognise the sector's long-term potential, stakeholders are likely to adopt a more cautious stance in the next six months.
Despite a decline in sentiment scores, the Indian real estate sector remains in positive territory. The residential market continues to show promise, though the pace of new launches is slowing. The office market remains resilient, and stakeholders expect sustained demand in the first half of 2025. However, economic uncertainties and funding concerns are prompting a more measured approach to investments and growth in the sector.
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